WINDOWS PHONE BECOMES THE THIRD BIGGEST MOBILE PLATFORM

WINDOWS PHONE BECOMES THE THIRD BIGGEST MOBILE PLATFORM

Why: 

Windows Phone 8 is really nice and the phones are good too: It's a proper alternative to iOS and Android, and RIM's misfortunes could be an opportunity for Microsoft to regain some of its lost mobile market share.

Why Not:

One lost BlackBerry customer doesn't necessarily mean one new Windows phone customer--they might buy a Samsung Galaxy S3 or an iPhone. Microsoft is facing an uphill challenge here, even if RIM self--destructs.

The Odds: 

5/2. A lot depends on whether RIM can stop its nose--dive.